Long Run San Francisco House Prices: 1930-2007

This chart shows the ratio of the median price of a San Francisco owner occupied house to the median price of a California owner occupied house. Census data for selected years 1930-2007.

Source: Census

The spike peaking in 2001 represents the dot-com era -- the first hump of the income bubble. The fall from the spike is not due to San Francisco prices adjusting downward, but to California prices shooting upward. By 2006, prices in California caught up with San Francisco, but by 2007, prices in California began to fall again as the housing bubble deflated in the suburban areas of the state. Unfortunately there is a 2 year lag for releasing the American Community Survey, so we will see what happens to that spike going forward. I predict another spike, followed by a reversion to the long run trend.